Friday, 22 August 2014

Will the market price of this share increase in the next two months? A peek into IBM Predictive Analysis

Short term Analysis
Before buying some shares of a company, you want to make sure that the company is doing good in the market and that the market price of the share will increase.  You will consider the brand value, discuss with your friends regarding the performance of the company, refer to websites that depict the recent trend of this share's market price, compare it with its competitors and also ensure that the company has good reviews from the general public.  Based on all these factors you use for analysis, you will be able to predict whether the market value of this share will retain, lose or increase in currency.

So, in order to have its shares sold and to have an increase in profit, the company has to ensure that it develops or maintains a good brand name, good feedback from the public - thereby leading to good reviews in the websites, and also, compare itself with the competitors.

Long term Planning
Most of us may maintain a pension related policy, so that we can remain financially independent and enjoy our retired life.  We also invest money in property to make it of use to us after a period of few years.  This is long term planning.

Similar long term planning is required for companies too.  Some of the companies we see have been there for generations.  It is all because of the good will that the company has obtained and it has retained.

A company will have to regularly monitor its progress and if it finds it getting down, immediately come up with remedial measures to retain its position in the market.

Predictive Analysis and Strategies
Analysis of existing and streaming data in structured and unstructured formats, using data mining, text mining, and other analytical techniques help organization in decision making and plan for the future.  The IBM Predictive Analysis set of products are user friendly and help the customers in finding out patterns in performance, thereby enabling the customer in planning and coming up with strategies.  The products available helps the customers in obtaining customer's views accurately, performing statistical analysis on data, finding patterns and trends and providing optimized decisions.  Some of these products are also available on the cloud.

Real World Scenarios and IBM Predictive Analysis Products
Let us have a quick look at where most of these products fit into.

How did you get to know me? - SPSS Data Collection
Has this happened to you?  When you visit a garment store, has the representative there provided you a form for providing feedback.  In one of my experiences the feedback form had a column asking How I got to know about the shop.  It could have been from the social websites in the Internet, from a friend, from the advertisement in the television or newspaper, or just a casual visit after the store had been noticed.  Now this detail which may been trivial to the customer is very critical to the company.  Based on the percentage of customers that have come from the different sources, they could decide the best source of advertising about themselves.  Based on the rating given by the customer, they could plan to provide the best service.

Refer SPSS Data Collection Professional

Customer Service At Stores and Product Quality - Predictive Maintenance and Quality
At each branch of a particular store, there is a sales person for each brand.  All of them are so capable that they explain how a particular consumer product will help you and make you buy it.  Supposing one of the ten brands in that store does not sell well at all, possibly because the product is not good or because that sales person is not taking adequate time to explain its features, the company has to analyze the proper reason and take remedial measures.  Similar analysis has to be done for products that have crossed the expiry date and still lying on the shelves of stores.  So feedback that comes directly from the stores also has to taken into consideration.

Feedback from the Internet sites - IBM Social Media Analytics
To decide on a particular brand to get a Refrigerator, we browsed through the Internet to see the Reviews it had obtained.  Text analysis and analysis of the rating obtained forms a major source for feedback analysis.  Also, it is important to find the number of Likes that this brand has obtained and to compare it with the Likes that competitors have obtained.

Retaining Customers - IBM SPSS Data Collection
After purchasing the Refrigerator, the customer faces some problem with it.  He immediately calls up the contact number of the company and a company promises to send a person for servicing.  The politeness that the customer representative shows over phone and the speed and quality of services provided by the representative doing the repair determines the feedback this customer may represent over the social networks and discuss with friends and relatives.  For a product like a refrigerator, it majorly affects only the brand value, but when it comes to an Internet Service Provider it determines how long a customer will remain your customer.  Hence analysis of the quality of conversation between the customer and the representative is a important source for feedback from the customer.

Customer Purchase Pattern - IBM Predictive Customer Intelligence
Assuming I have a Customer Id with a garment store and for the last couple of years I have visited the store and purchased dresses for a few thousand Rupees, the garment store could predict that I would visit again when discount is given this year and could send me an SMS to inform me about the discount.  Analyzing each regular customer's purchase pattern could be of immense value to a company.

Moving with the Current Trend - IBM SPSS Statistics
In all fields, it is important to move with the current trend.  Without stock of a new release of a mobile, from a highly reputed brand, a mobile store would not run well.  If noodles with oats is not available in a grocery shop, I would obviously move to the next shop.  Hence, noticing the current trend and introduction of products and planning to obtain the product and stock it at stores is important.  

1 comment:

Raghavan said...

The IBM predictive Analysis is found quite reliable and more so in academic discussions,analysis and study.It gives proper ideas or yardstick to measure the value or intrinsic value of scrips in Stock Market.However,short term predictions or estimates are influenced by the Stock Market operators,Brokers,Lobbying,political situations of the country,availability of funds with FIIs..and large players in market like LIC,etc.In a way markets are influenced by many extraneous factors than the real reasons affecting the growth,profitability,etc of corporates.Intra day profit booking is,rarely found profitable considering restrictions in gain percentage added to huge cost on brokerages,etc...Short term investments are also not found profitable considering uncertain trend of prices with added brokerage costs,loss on capital gains,etc The article is good...but there must be more shorttime losers than gainers...Thank the author of blog for the meticulous presentation of analytical tools...I am interested to learn many more things in the Market fluctuations,movements,and look forward to her future articles....THANK YOU MADAM

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